BlacKKKlansman
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star is Born
Vice
Alternate: If Beale Street Could Talk, A Quiet Place
With the accordion-like nominations for Best Picture (just go back to 5 or 10, please, if only for the sake of my spreadsheets) still in affect, it's a question mark over how many will be cited, but I''m going with eight. The biggest question marks of the movies I've actually predicted would be Vice, Green Book, Bohemian Rhapsody, and The Favourite, the first three because they have almost as ardent of critics as they do champions, and the latter because it's more provocative (and feminine) than Oscar usually goes, but I think the precursor support for all four films is enough to make this cut (and I'm not discounting that one or two might be a threat for the win). Beale Street, Quiet Place, or even a longer shot like Crazy Rich Asians or First Man are possible, but they'd need to be uniquely AMPAS-supported (much like Phantom Thread last year) if that were the case as the buzz for the season hasn't been high enough to get them onto the list.
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Spike Lee, BlacKKKlansman
Adam McKay, Vice
Alternate: Peter Farrelly, Green Book
The Lowdown: Unless something weird happens (Chazelle, Pawlikowski) these are the six men in contention, and it's probable that Lanthimos/McKay/Farrelly are the three fighting it out for the actual nomination. I'm skipping Farrelly because his #MeToo allegations surfaced right around the time of voting, similar to James Franco last year, though I could easily see an argument for Lanthimos (no DGA) or McKay (Vice's reviews are middling, and he just won) being the odd-man-out. It's all a moot point, though, since Cuaron is surely going to win so they're all just competing to lose.
ActorChristian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
John David Washington, BlacKKKlansman
Alternate: Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
The Lowdown: The first four men listed here feel all-locked-up. Best Actor is weird this year because there were a lot (better) options to go with than these four men, particularly considering Cooper is the only one who feels like he should be winning at this point in his career (considering momentum, the role, & such), but no one else gained any traction. Washington's dual nominations at the Globes & SAG, not to mention the fact that it'll look bad if he misses while Driver hits (something similar happened the last time Spike Lee had a film in the Best Picture race), should get him over the fence (it's also probable that, considering his movie star father, there are a lot of people in the acting branch who remember him on the set as a kid, which has helped the likes of Kate Hudson & Angelina Jolie before him). Hawke's is the sort of work that comes out of nowhere, but will enough people see a (heavy, serious, sometimes too serious) film of that nature, and like it more than Lee's approachable BlacKKKlansman?
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Alternate: Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
The Lowdown: This is a race that feels relatively settled. Colman, Gaga, & Close are all mortal locks, and McCarthy makes so much sense on paper that I doubt she'll miss (though she could-this is a small movie and it's pretty queer, so that might turn off the actors branch that prefers Best Actress young & feminine). For the fifth nomination, I could see Oscar going a number of directions. The BAFTA citation for Viola Davis threw me, but with no heat literally anywhere else, can she sneak in at this point? Kidman's had another big year, and this would be an easy bone to throw her, but I think they botched the release for Destroyer (imagine how much more strength it'd have if it'd been an early-November mini-hit). Yalitza Aparicio is in the film that could be the Best Picture winner, and the last time a Best Picture winner had a lead actress that didn't get nominated was 1964; could that mean a big surprise on Tuesday? But none of these women have the heat and precursors of Emily Blunt, who has been waiting and waiting and waiting for this nomination, and seems like she should be able to get it, so I'm keeping her in (tentatively) for Mary Poppins (I also think it's possible she lands for A Quiet Place ala Kate Winslet in 2008, but that'd be too wild to actually predict).
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Adam Driver, BlacKKKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell, Vice
Alternate: Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
The Lowdown: Again, like Best Actor, it's weird how lock-step this category became after a while, considering that there's actors in Best Picture nominees (Michael B. Jordan, Steve Carell) and former nominees/winners (Russell Crowe, Daniel Kaluuya) that totally could have been part of the conversation. But since I have to pick someone to be out, I'm going with Chalamet. His film has no love anywhere else, he's young & pretty (despite being a former nominee, that's still a hindrance for him as Oscar loves his male actors old & rugged), and this nomination feels entirely based on the fact that everyone knows he should have won last year. If he gets in it's likely that Rockwell or Elliott misses out, but the former is in a major Best Picture contender and the latter is a beloved character actor who has never been nominated, and it's hard to imagine AMPAS skipping them both. Plus, there's always at least one actor who gets in with SAG/Globes and then misses with AMPAS-I think it's Chalamet.
Amy Adams, Vice
Linda Cardellini, Green Book
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Alternate: Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians
The Lowdown: The fifth slot for Best Supporting Actress is the most exciting (Adams, Stone, Weisz, and King feel pretty set), and is the place where I think that No Globe/No SAG shows up. This is because Claire Foy's First Man has been losing steam for months (that movie came-and-went with little fanfare), and Margot Robbie is in a movie very few people are trumpeting (and she is an actual supporting part, which feels out of vogue these days). I am therefore debating between Cardellini and Yeoh, and while I initially figured this was where Yeoh surprised (CRA seems like a bigger deal for awards bodies than pundits are giving it credit for), the surge of support for Green Book, and all of the speeches from the producers focusing on Cardellini makes me think she's the one who sneaks in with the "supportive wife" role.
The Favourite
First Reformed
Green Book
Roma
Vice
Alternate: Eighth Grade
The Lowdown: The fight here likely is between Roma (auteur films don't always get the credit they deserve, even when they're Best Picture favorites), Eighth Grade, and Vice. My gut says Roma makes it because Best Picture favorites usually make it in these lineups unless they're written by James Cameron, so it's between the two remaining pictures. Eighth Grade makes more sense, but we live in a world where Paul f-ing Schrader of all people doesn't have an Oscar nomination, and I think enough people will see First Reformed and realize that in the writers' branch, so I'm going with him.
BlacKKKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Crazy Rich Asians
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star is Born
Alternate: Black Panther
The Lowdown: Weirdly it's adapted that has the looser options than Best Original Screenplay, and other than BlacKKKlansman (which is going to win), there's no proper lock. I went with this lineup because Jenkins' film is going to make it somewhere, Holofcener's is about writing, A Star is Born is a serious threat for the top prize (and is not written by James Cameron), and Crazy Rich Asians is a massive, populist hit whose book you can still see being read on your morning commute. Leave No Trace (Granik has made it here before) or Black Panther (Best Picture/I already made the Jim Cameron joke twice) are options, but the former is such a small movie and the latter is based on a comic book, and not an ultra-serious one like Logan so I'm not placing the farm on either of them.
Black Panther
Cold War
If Beale Street Could Talk
Roma
A Star is Born
Alternate: A Quiet Place
The Lowdown: You're going to notice as we move into the tech categories that I'm betting heavily against First Man, which is not because I don't like it (I did), but because this has all of the elements of a major Oscar contender, but no precursors have bit other than with Claire Foy, and even she's been on shaky ground since her Globes nomination. With Sandgren out, this is an easy call on the nominees. The classiest of all of the precursors (the ASC) bet on all of these films minus Beale Street, which if they aren't going for First Man is an easy call. If it's not one of these films, it's possible that A Quiet Place gets in here (the lack of sounds heightens your focus on the visual, and after the plaudits the branch received last year for a female DP they might go for another one), but I don't think it'll happen. Lord help us all if Oscar follows BAFTA's lead and goes with Bohemian Rhapsody's garishness over something as beautiful as Beale Street or First Man-I may never stop weeping.
Black Panther
Crazy Rich Asians
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary Queen of Scots
Alternate: Fantastic Beasts 2
The Lowdown: It'd be easy to put some vintage wears (Bohemian Rhapsody, Beale Street) or a repeat nomination (Fantastic Beasts) into this lineup, but people have been ignoring the persistent love for Crazy Rich Asians all season, and I feel like it's going to get a few nominations, and so I'm giving a gutsy prediction here even if it's contemporary design. Oscar doesn't often go for such things, but the two most recent examples (La La Land and The Devil Wears Prada) leave room for a clothes horse movie such as Crazy Rich Asians, and there's not really a slam dunk fifth nomination, so I'm taking the plunge.
Film EditingBlack Panther
BlacKKKlansman
Roma
A Star is Born
Vice
Alternate: Bohemian Rhapsody
The Lowdown: After the PGA, I should consider giving Green Book mention here (if it is going to win Best Picture, I suspect it'd be a nominee in this lineup), but I don't see where to trim. All of these are Best Picture nominees with showier work, and for some reason Bohemian Rhapsody is getting praised here for cobbling together the visions of three different directors...even if it did a truly abysmal job of it. If someone is vulnerable it's probably Cuaron, who is already a threat in four other categories and as a result might be accused of being greedy for getting a fifth.
Makeup & HairBohemian Rhapsody
Border
Vice
Alternate: Stan & Ollie
The Lowdown: The Makeup Branch is famously confusing, but a rule is that if a foreign film makes the shortlist, it'll make the nominations, so count on Border to be included. The transformational work of Vice is an easy call, as is Freddie Mercury's teeth. Anecdotally, I saw several crowds in love with Stan & Ollie (I haven't caught it yet) this weekend, and since this is the only place it could make it, I wouldn't be stunned if it landed on the list, but I didn't have room with these three already down. Also, this is my annual call to expand this to 5 nominees-it makes no sense that this is the one category that doesn't have five citations since every film has Makeup (as opposed to films without songs or music or VFX).
Black Panther
First Man
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma
Alternate: Fantastic Beasts 2
The Lowdown: For all of the talk of how often Stuart Craig is nominated for the Harry Potter series, he's never actually won for it. I'm guessing at this point he never will (Colleen Atwood's win for the series two years ago is still bizarre), and I think that with this film's reviews, it'll be his fall from grace on even getting nominated. If there's someone that gets left out, I'm guessing it's First Man, but they love space movies and considering Chazelle's last film was such a major Oscar player, they'll want to put it in somewhere.
Avengers: Infinity War
Black Panther
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story
Welcome to Marwen
Alternate: Christopher Robin
The Lowdown: With VFX, especially in fields where it feels like there are a lot of options, it's smart to read the bakeoff recaps, which indicated that Marwen and Solo did particularly well this year, so I'm including them both. I'd been looking for a reason to predict Solo (all but one of the Star Wars movies have been nominated here), and this was it, while Marwen's effects are unique enough in the Top 10 to make sense here. The lack of VES nominations has some people thinking that Black Panther is vulnerable, but I'm not one of those who assume it will be (and I'm still betting it wins the actual Oscar), but if it is shockingly snubbed, watch out for Christopher Robin, whose work recreating the characters of AA Milne is quite effective if you've seen the movie.
Original ScoreThe Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Black Panther
If Beale Street Could Talk
Isle of Dogs
A Quiet Place
Alternate: First Man
The Lowdown: This is a good time to remind people that you vote for a nominee, not against one. This will help Marco Beltrami's A Quiet Place, who has enough fans (and is a previous nominee, which helps in this category more than any other), to get nominated even if his loud detractors probably won't land him an actual nomination. I'm curious if First Man can get in here-the score is unique, and Hurwitz won a pair of trophies for scoring two years ago with La La Land, but I'm sticking to my thoughts that First Man nominations will be a rare occurrence and instead going with the musical work of Carter Burwell in Buster Scruggs, a film that keeps showing up on precursor lists somewhere, and one I feel will need to be included somewhere in my predictions.
"All the Stars," Black Panther
"Girl in the Movies," Dumplin'
"I'll Fight," RBG
"The Place Where Lost Things Go," Mary Poppins Returns
"Shallow," A Star is Born
Alternate: "When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings," The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
The Lowdown: One of the thinnest years for Original Song in a while, this is all just a contest to see who will lose to Lady Gaga when it comes to the Dolby's big night in a few weeks. As a result, I'm going with a bunch of regulars and the one other big hit ("All the Stars") to finish this out (poor Diane Warren & Dolly Parton will continue to be misses here). Scruggs is my alternate, but this is a famously eclectic category so don't discount pretty much any options if one of these five falter.
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma
A Star is Born
Alternate: A Quiet Place
The Lowdown: It's a smart decision to always bet on the musicals in this category and abandon them when you get to editing, which is what I'm doing. Bohemian, Mary Poppins, and A Star is Born show that cinematic song was a big deal this year, and the remaining two are easy calls from a Best Picture lineup that is oddly scant in terms of "sound-focused" contenders. A Quiet Place could ironically make it, but I think they would have had a better shot if there had been no score at all.
Black Panther
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
A Quiet Place
Roma
Alternate: A Star is Born
The Lowdown: La La Land taught us that if they really like you, they'll nominate you here even if there's no obvious Sound Editing to be had in your film. Still, I'm going with Mary Poppins as the nomination instead of A Star is Born because it had clearer sound effects...I wouldn't be shocked if A Star is Born gets in solely for the concert sequences because they want to add to its nomination count (similar to La La Land getting in just for the opening LA freeway number). I'm also throwing in First Man (space odysseys are one of the big reasons for this category) & A Quiet Place (because the irony is too much to resist in both places, and it deserves it more here).
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Alternate: The Grinch
The Lowdown: In days of old, we'd probably be getting a surprise from Ruben Brandt on Oscar nomination morning, but with the larger AMPAS voting, I think the biggest surprise we can assume from this lineup will be Mirai, which isn't a surprise at all since it got the Globe nomination. I think Spider-Verse is more vulnerable than it seems (it's got a Lego Movie/Simpsons Movie hipness that has been anathema to Oscar in this category before), even if it could win the whole shindig post-Tuesday. I'm also a bit scared The Grinch (which was a massive hit no one really noticed became a massive hit-it's the 7th highest grossing film of 2018!) could get in ala The Boss Baby, but I think this lineup is just tight enough to hold water and help me to avoid having to see that film. Still, only once in a five-wide race has Oscar matched up completely with the Globes, so history teaches us there should be a film skipped here in favor of something else...
Caperneum (Lebanon)
Cold War (Poland)
The Guilty (Denmark)
Roma (Mexico)
Shoplifters (Japan)
Alternate: Never Look Away (Germany)
The Lowdown: Oscar is notoriously rough on Asian cinema, particularly Korean cinema, and so I'm skipping Burning of the five critical darlings in this bunch. Honestly, based on the trailers I could see another darling falling to Never Look Away (is Shoplifters too subtle for Oscar?), but I didn't quite get there yet so I'm just sticking with The Guilty, which is up Oscar's alley and is from a country they tend to favor in recent years.
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